Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer
Plant Science Today (PST)

Research Articles

Early Access

Implications of climate change on food security in SAARC countries: A panel data approach

DOI
https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.6379
Submitted
27 November 2024
Published
21-04-2025
Versions

Abstract

Natural disasters, population growth, global climate change, and political instability are threatening food security, especially in South Asia. The research study aims to determine the relationship between climate change and food security in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries during the period from 2001 to 2021. The panel data technique is adopted for the empirical analysis because it addresses the time and country effect, providing accurate research findings. The Food Production Index is used as the dependent variable and works as proxy indicator for food security. Pre-estimation tests including, the Breusch-pagan test for heteroscedasticity, the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for Multicollinearity and Woolridge test for serial autocorrelation, are conducted before panel regression estimation. The model stability is tested by post regression diagnostics of Hansen and Hausman specification test. The empirical results revealed that temperature, rainfall and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita are governing food security. In contrast, population growth has negative effect on food security, demonstrating that South Asia’s burgeoning population hinders progress towards achieving food security . Inflation and land area under cereal cultivation exhibits insignificant influence. The findings showed that both climate-related and non-climate-related variables affect food security. Hence, the development of interdisciplinary and effective food security policies is essential for ensuring social protection and address  food security challenges in SAARC countries.

References

  1. Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A, Wheeler T. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ Res Lett [Internet]. 2012;7(3):034032. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032
  2. Islam MS, Kieu E. Tackling regional climate change impacts and food security issues: A critical analysis across ASEAN, PIF and SAARC. Sustain. 2020;12(3):883. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030883
  3. Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Khurana R, Khatri-Chhetri A, Rahut DB, Jat ML. Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: Adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environ, Develop and Sustain. 2020;22(6):5045?75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00414-4
  4. Shaw DJ. World food summit, 1996. World food security: A history since 1945:Springer; 2007. p. 347?60. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230589780_35
  5. Gupta R, Somanathan E, Dey S. Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in India. Climatic Change. 2017;140(3):593?604. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1878-8
  6. Imtiaz S, Shahid S, Ishfaq T, Ilyas M, Nawaz AF, Shamshad J, et al. Impact of climate change on agriculture. Environment, Climate, Plant and Vegetation Growth: Springer Nature Switzerland Cham; 2024. p. 285?305. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69417-2_10
  7. Searchinger TD, Wirsenius S, Beringer T, Dumas P. Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change. Nat. 2018;564(7735):249?53. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0757-z
  8. Mbow C, Rosenzweig CE, Barioni LG, Benton TG, Herrero M, Krishnapillai M, et al. Food security. IPCC; 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-0031-z
  9. wmo. State of the global climate 2022: UN; 2023.
  10. Ruel MT, Fanzo JC. 2021 Global food policy report: Transforming food systems after COVID-19.
  11. Islam MS. Human capital formation and economic growth in South Asia: heterogeneous dynamic panel cointegration. Inter J of Edu Economics and Develop. 2020;11(4):335?50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEED.2020.110593
  12. Gumma MK, Thenkabail PS, Panjala P, Teluguntla P, Yamano T, Mohammed I. Multiple agricultural cropland products of South Asia developed using Landsat-8 30 m and MODIS 250 m data using machine learning on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud and spectral matching techniques (SMTs) in support of food and water security. GIScience and Remote Sensing. 2022;59(1):1048?77. https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2022.2088651
  13. Azeem S, Cheema HA, Shahid A, Al-Mamun F, Rackimuthu S, Rehman ME, et al. Devastating floods in South Asia: The inequitable repercussions of climate change and an urgent appeal for action. Public Health in Practice. 2023;5:100365. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhip.2023.100365
  14. Devi S. Pakistan floods: impact on food security and health systems. The Lancet. 2022;400(10355):799?800. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01732-9
  15. IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: (2022) Cambridge, UK.
  16. Walsh JE, Bieniek PA, Brettschneider B, Euskirchen ES, Lader R, Thoman RL. The exceptionally warm winter of 2015/16 in Alaska. J of Climate. 2017;30(6):2069?88. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0473.1
  17. Mannar V, Micha R, Allemandi L, Afshin A, Baker P, Battersby J, et al. 2020 global nutrition report: action on equity to end malnutrition. 2020;89023:Report No. 1916445276.
  18. Barbier EB, Hochard JP. Land degradation and poverty. Nat Sustain. 2018;1(11):623?31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0155-4
  19. Hussain M, Butt AR, Uzma F, Ahmed R, Irshad S, Rehman A, et al. A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environ monitoring and assess. 2020;192:1?20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7956-4
  20. Agostoni C, Baglioni M, La Vecchia A, Molari G, Berti C. Interlinkages between climate change and food systems: the impact on child malnutrition—narrative review. Nutri. 2023;15(2):416. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15020416
  21. Alagidede P, Adu G, Frimpong PB. The effect of climate change on economic growth: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ Economics and Policy Stud. 2016;18:417?36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-015-0116-3
  22. Dumortier J, Carriquiry M, Elobeid A. Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Agri Economics. 2021;52(6):963?84. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12660
  23. Tokunaga S, Okiyama M, Ikegawa M. Dynamic panel data analysis of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Japan. Japan Agri Res Quarterly: JARQ. 2015;49(2):149?57. https://doi.org/10.6090/jarq.49.149
  24. Chen C-C, McCarl B, Chang CC. Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications. Climatic Change. 2012;110(3):543?60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0074-0
  25. Kumar A, Sharma P. Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. Available at SSRN 4144089. 2022. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4144089
  26. Badolo F, Kinda S. Climatic variability and food security in developing countries. Etudes et Documents. 2014;(05). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2721986
  27. Wang J, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Huang J, Rozelle S, Zhang L. The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agri Economics. 2009;40(3):323?37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00379.x
  28. Arshed N, Abduqayumov S. Economic impact of climate change on wheat and cotton in major districts of Punjab. Inter J of Economics and Financial Res. 2016;2(10):183?91. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:arp:ijefrr:2016:p:183-191
  29. Kordi MA, Amirnejad H, Mojaverian SM. Studying the effects of climate change of precipitation and temperature on yield of Iran's irrigated wheat using the dynamic panel method. Bio forum. 2015;7(2):22?28.
  30. Schuster M, Delgado L, Torero M. The reality of food losses: A new measurement methodology. MPRA Paper 80378. 2018. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80378/
  31. Lara-Arévalo J, Escobar-Burgos L, Moore E, Neff R, Spiker ML. COVID-19, climate change and conflict in Honduras: A food system disruption analysis. Global Food Security. 2023;37:100693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100693
  32. Ericksen PJ, Thornton PK, Notenbaert AMO, Cramer L, Jones PG, Herrero MT. Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. CCAFS Report. 2011.
  33. Gitz V, Meybeck A, Lipper L, Young CD, Braatz S. Climate change and food security: risks and responses. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Report. 2016;110(2):3?36.
  34. Abeysekara WCSM, Siriwardana M, Meng S. Economic consequences of climate change impacts on South Asian agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Australian J of Agri and Res Economics. 2024;68(1):77?100. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12541
  35. Behnassi M, El Haiba M. Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security. Nature Human Behaviour. 2022;6(6):754?55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01391-x
  36. Affoh R, Zheng H, Dangui K, Dissani BM. The impact of climate variability and change on food security in sub-saharan africa: Perspective from panel data analysis. Sustain. 2022;14(2):759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020759
  37. Ani KJ, Anyika VO, Mutambara E. The impact of climate change on food and human security in Nigeria. Inter J of Climate Change Strategies and Manag. 2021;14(2):148?67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2020-0119
  38. Adesete AA, Olanubi OE, Dauda RO. Climate change and food security in selected Sub-Saharan African countries. Environ, Develop and Sustain. 2023;25(12):14623?41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02681-0
  39. Roy A. A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy. PLOS Climate. 2024;3(1):e0000339. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368
  40. Alboghdady M, El-Hendawy SE. Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region. Inter Jof Climate Change Strategies and Manag. 2016;8(3):463?72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2015-0100
  41. Safi L, Mujeeb M, Sahak K, Mushwani H, Hashmi SK. Climate change impacts and threats on basic livelihood resources, food security and social stability in Afghanistan. GeoJ. 2024;89(2):85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11077-8
  42. Krishnamurthy PK, Hobbs C, Matthiasen A, Hollema S, Choularton R, Pahari K, et al. Climate risk and food security in Nepal—analysis of climate impacts on food security and livelihoods. CCAFS Working Paper. 2013. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34077
  43. Mughal M, Fontan Sers C. Cereal production, undernourishment and food insecurity in South Asia. Review of Develop Economics. 2020;24(2):524?45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12659
  44. Bandara JS, Cai Y. The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Economic Anal and Policy. 2014;44(4):451?65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2014.09.005
  45. Molotoks A, Smith P, Dawson TP. Impacts of land use, population and climate change on global food security. Food and Energy Security. 2021;10(1):e261. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.261
  46. Samim S, Zhiquan H. Assessment of food security situation in Afghanistan. SVU-Inter J of Agri Sci. 2020;2(2):356?77. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/svuijas.2020.45765.1044
  47. Gunaratne MS, Firdaus R, Rathnasooriya SI. Climate change and food security in Sri Lanka: Towards food sovereignty. Humanities and Social Sci Commun. 2021;8(1). https://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00917-4
  48. Organization WH. The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2022: Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. Food and Agri Org.; 2022.
  49. Chemjong B, Yadav K. Food security in Nepal: a review. Rupantaran: A Multidisciplinary J. 2020;4(1):31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/rupantaran.v4i1.34015
  50. Qasim M, Tariq M. Determinants of food insecurity: A comparative analysis of general and farmer households in Pakistan. J of Business and Economic Options. 2020;3(3):100?06. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291343
  51. Akter S, Basher SA. The impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being: Evidence from rural Bangladesh. Global Environ Change. 2014;25:15062.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.02.003
  52. George NA, McKay FH. The public distribution system and food security in India. Inter J of Environ Res and Public Health. 2019;16(17):3221. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173221
  53. Fusco G. Climate change and food security in the northern and eastern African Regions: A panel data analysis. Sustain. 2022;14(19):12664. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912664
  54. Table 1. Description of data and sources used in research study

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.