Climate change linked spatio-temporal drought prediction over  Tamil Nadu (India)

Mahalingam Vengateswari; Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari; Vellingiri Geethalakshmi; Sivaprakasam Arul Prasad; Eswaran Sathyapriya; Mani Guna; Chelladurai Dharani; Thiruvaliperumal Balaji; Selvaraj Vigneswaran

doi:10.14719/pst.6584

Authors

Vengateswari Mahalingam Department of Agricultural Engineering, Mohamed Sathak Engineering College, Ramanathapuram 623 806, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4864-2240
Bhuvaneswari Kulanthaivel Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9139-5700
Geethalakshmi Vellingiri Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1631-121X
Arul Prasad Sivaprakasam Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7888-0966
Sathyapriya Eswaran Agricultural Extension, Amrita school of agricultural sciences, Coimbatore 642 109, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6512-1220
Guna Mani North Karnataka Agrometeorological Forecasting and Research Centre, India Meteorological Department, Dharwad 580 005, Karnataka, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5369-768X
Dharani Chelladurai Department of Agronomy, SRM College of Agricultural Sciences, Chengalpattu 603 201, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6533-1914
Balaji Thiruvaliperumal Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Vazhavachanur 606 753, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9361-4137
Vigneswaran Selvaraj Division of Genetics and Tree Breeding, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, Coimbatore 641 002, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3207-5309

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.6584

Keywords:

climate change, drought, future, frequency, prediction

Abstract

Climate change projections suggest an increased risk of extreme events, potentially accelerating the occurrence of droughts in the future. Drought is a recurring climatic phenomenon that significantly affects the social and economic development of agricultural countries. It can occur in many parts of the world, though its characteristics differ from one region to another. The study aims to analyze future drought events in Tamil Nadu to gain insights into their frequency and spatial extent. Dynamical downscaling of the global circulation model (CCSM4) was done by employing the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The downscaled future rainfall data was used to calculate standardized precipitation index and drought characterization in the future period such as the near century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040–2069) and end of the century (2071-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario of CMIP5 project. The results of calculated SPI values showed that the drought frequency was higher in the Southwest Monsoon (20%) compared to the Northeast Monsoon in the future. Based on SPI, drought occurrence is expected to increase in the 4.5 scenario (50%) as compared to the 8.5 scenario, drought occurrence is projected to decrease due to an increase in rainfall projected in mid-century. This article paves the way for more accurate drought management strategies, contributing to improved resilience and sustainable development in drought-prone regions.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Kiem AS, Johnson F, Westra S, van Dijk A, Evans JP, Donnell A, et al. Natural hazards in Australia: droughts. Clim Change. 2016;139:37–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

Smith AB, Katz RW. US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Nat Hazards. 2013;67(2):387–410. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0566-

Reichstein M, Bahn M, Ciais P, Frank D, Mahecha MD, Seneviratne SI, et al. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle. Nature. 2013;500(7462):287–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350

Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami BN. Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun. 2015;6(1):7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423

Shah RD, Mishra V. Development of an experimental near-real-time drought monitor for India. J Hydrometeorol. 2015;16(1):327–45. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0041.1

Prasanna V. Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total foodgrain yield over India. J Earth Syst Sci. 2014;123(5):1129–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-014-0444-x

Gadgil S, Rupa KK. The Asian monsoon – agriculture and economy. In: The Asian monsoon. Springer Praxis Books. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg; 2006. p. 651–83. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-37722-0_18

Wetterhall F, Winsemius HC, Dutra E, Werner M, Pappenberger E. Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2015;19(6):2577–86. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015

Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H. Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag. 2007;21:821–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9105-4

Bhalme HN. Droughts: Historical perspectives agrometeorology (Agricultural droughts: Data base management). Lecture Notes of the second SERC School; 1995. p. 54

Naresh KM, Murthy CS, Sesha SMV, Roy PS. On the use of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought intensity assessment. Meteorol Appl. 2009;16(3):381–89. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1509.04808

Nosrati K, Zareiee AR. Assessment of meteorological drought using SPI in West Azarbaijan Province, Iran. J Appl Sci Environ Manag. 2011;15(4):563–69. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jasem/article/view/88628

Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma ML, Lamarque JF, et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change. 2011;109:213–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z

McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology; 1993 Jan 17-22; Anaheim, California; 1993. 17(22):179–83. Available from: https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/AMS_Relationship_Drought_Frequency_Duration_Time_Scales_1993.pdf

Rajkumar R, Shaijumon CS, Gopakumar B, Gopalakrishnan D. Extreme rainfall and drought events in Tamil Nadu, India. Clim Res. 2020;80(3):175–88. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01600

Bharambe KP, Shimizu Y, Kantoush SA, Sumi T, Saber M. Impacts of climate change on drought and its consequences on the agricultural crop under worst-case scenario over the Godavari River Basin, India. Clim Serv. 2023;32:100415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100415.

Masroor M, Rehman S, Avtar R, Sahana M, Ahmed R, Sajjad H. Exploring climate variability and its impact on drought occurrence: Evidence from Godavari Middle sub-basin, India. Weather Clim Extrem. 2020;30:100277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100277

Zhang Z, Zhang Y, Henderson M, Wang G, Chen M, Fu Y, et al. Effect of land use type on soil moisture dynamics in the sloping lands of the black soil (Mollisols) region of Northeast China. Agri. 2024;14(8):1261. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14081261

Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, Mishra V. Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather Clim Extrem. 2018;20:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.005

Jayasankar CB, Surendran S, Rajendran K. Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42(9):3513–20. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063659

Turner AG, Annamalai H. Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Chang. 2012;2(8):587–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495

Alemu MG, Wubneh MA, Worku TA, Womber ZR, Chanie KM. Comparison of CMIP5 models for drought predictions and trend analysis over Mojo catchment, Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Sci Afr. 2023;22:e01891. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e0189

Seneviratne SI, Zhang X, Adnan M, Badi W, Dereczynski C, Luca AD, et al. Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate; 2021 Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

Gurara MA, Jilo NB, Tolche AD. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement in Upper Wabe Bridge watershed, Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia. J Afr Earth Sci. 2021;180:104223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2021.104223

Naumann G, Alfieri L, Wyser K, Mentaschi L, Betts RA, Carrao H, et al. Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2018;45(7):3285–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076521

Aadhar S, Mishra V. Impact of climate change on drought frequency over India. Climate Change and Water Resources in India Publisher: Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF and CC), Government of India; 2018 Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330161820_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_Drought_Frequency_over_India