India, ranking as the second largest global vegetable producer, faces a significant discrepancy between its production capacity and export potential, particularly for tomato, onion and potato (TOP) vegetables. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the export performance of these three critical crops by analyzing their growth patterns, market stability and trade destinations over two decades. The research utilized 21 years of Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) data (2004 to 2024), employing Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for growth trend analysis, Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) to measure export volatility and stability and Markov Chain methodology to examine shifting trade destination patterns. These analytical methods collectively provide a robust framework for understanding export dynamics through secondary data reflecting production patterns, export quantities, values and market destinations. The findings revealed that tomatoes experienced extreme growth volatility with spectacular initial growth (56.74 % CAGR) followed by dramatic decline (-11.51 % CAGR), while onion exports demonstrated relative stability despite periodic fluctuations and potato exports showed consistent positive growth with improving market stability over time. Export instability analysis indicated high volatility for tomato exports and medium instability for onions, whereas potato exports exhibited significant stability improvements. The Markov Chain analysis revealed high export concentration toward Bangladesh for tomato and onion markets, with Nepal emerging as a key destination for potato exports. Overall, the study demonstrates that realizing India's vegetable export potential through TOP crops requires coordinated policy interventions, infrastructure development and quality standardization to enhance exports and achieve sustainable growth in global markets.
