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Plant Science Today (PST)

Research Articles

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2025)

Validation of medium range rainfall forecast accuracy in Jagtial district of Telangana

DOI
https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.7460
Submitted
27 January 2025
Published
10-04-2025 — Updated on 23-04-2025
Versions

Abstract

Rainfall is found to vary to a greater extent in its amount, intensity and distribution than any other weather parameter. Variation in rainfall during the crop season, including delay in monsoon arrival, heavy downpours and prolonged dry spells, can have a more significant impact on crop growth and development. If farmers have timely access to a medium-range rainfall forecast, they can take full advantage of unfavourable weather situations in scheduling their agricultural operations. The present study was taken by Agromet Field Unit (AMFU), Regional Agricultural Research Station, Jagtial, to analyze and verify the accuracy of medium-range rainfall forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department using a location-specific Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for the Jagtial district from 2017 to 2023. The methodology included adopting quantitative and qualitative methods with the Ratio score, Hanssen and Kuipers (H.K) Score, RMSE, usability analysis and correlation of validation for verifying the accuracy of rainfall forecast for the monsoon. The results of the study revealed that rain forecast accuracy for past 7 years is excellent for post monsoon (October - December) in Jagtial district that has high skill score (RS range 77.2 to 93.5 %) with lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of rainfall (3.17 to 14.2) in contrast to poor to moderate skill score (RS range 47.5 to 60.7 %) of accuracy for south-west monsoon with higher RMSE (14 to 29.5). The percent usability of forecast was also found to be higher for the post-monsoon (88.5 to 100 %) than the southwest monsoon (39.3 to 84.9 %). Among the essential predictions, rainfall is the most crucial one, which affects the crop output over a given region and, finally, the farmer's economics. Hence, with access to enhanced accuracy of rain forecast, farmers of Jagtial can limit the damages caused directly or indirectly by adverse weather situations by executing timely need-based farm operations.

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