Modelling and forecasting of turmeric in Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

In India, turmeric holds a special place as both a spice and a medicinal crop, with South India being the leading region for its cultivation and trade. Given its economic importance, the present study examines developments in acreage, output and yield of turmeric in Andhra Pradesh from 1954 to 2023, using data collected from India stats and analyzed through GRETL and MS Excel. The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were calculated across eight sub-periods to identify cultivation trends. The results indicate that from 1954 to 1993, turmeric area, production and yield showed a steady increase, but began declining thereafter, largely influenced by regional restructuring and the state bifurcation. Furthermore, for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology was applied, selecting models based on autocorrelation functions and criteria such as AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE (minimum) and R² (maximum) values. The ARIMA (1,1,10) model was deemed suitable for forecasting area and yield, while the ARIMA (1, 1, 9) model was appropriate for production, both achieving a 95 % accuracy level. Projections suggest a declining trend in turmeric cultivation, with area and production expected to decrease to 9.33 (000 ha) and 108.12 (000) MT, respectively, by 2030-31. These findings highlight the necessity for strategic interventions to stabilize and enhance turmeric farming in the region, providing a foundation for policymakers to address sustainability and productivity challenges.