A growing strand of literature has highlighted a positive association between diversification towards high-value crops and poverty reduction in developing countries, largely drawing on household-level data. However, many socio-economic and biophysical factors operate at the meso (district) level, and their role in diversification towards high-value crops is not well understood. Against this backdrop, the present paper examines the case of the Indian state of Karnataka by drawing upon the panel data from 2001 to 2021 to study the determinants of diversification towards horticulture crops and their sub-sector at the district level. The results of a fixed-effects panel regression model show that increasing the share of horticulture does not necessarily promote diversification. The finding further revealed that factors driving the increasing share of horticulture crops vary in importance across different sub-sectors. Government and donor agencies would do well to note that a one-size-fit-all approach does not work form promoting diversification. It is imperative to develop tailored strategies that address the specific needs and conditions of diverse regions to effectively promote sustainable land-use practices. The study’s findings reveals that demand-side factors like gross GDP (gross domestic product) per capita of the district and the degree of urbanization affect horticulture diversification positively. Furthermore, the study provides crucial insights into the impact of increasing population pressure, which is largely associated with rapid expansion of non–agricultural land. This trend negatively affects the availability of land allocated to horticulture and its sub-categories at the district level.