Strategic mapping of agroclimate vulnerability and carbon emissions for India’s net zero transition

Abstract

India's dual challenge of achieving net zero emissions by 2070 while enhancing climate resilience demands integrated policy tailored regional contexts. This study presents a novel framework that simultaneously evaluates agroclimatic vulnerability and sector specific carbon emissions at the state level to present targeted climate action. We constructed Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) by normalizing nine indicators across biophysical dimensions, socioeconomic factors and institutional capacities using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on state level data (2011-2023) a period marked by multiple climate policy reforms and agricultural transitions in India. PCA was initially applied to assign indicator weights, but due to limited variance among components, equal weighting was adopted to maintain robustness and transparency. Concurrently, we quantified carbon emissions across primary, secondary and tertiary sectors using standardized national datasets. Due to the lack of a centralized, sector disaggregated emissions database, estimates are indicative rather than exhaustive. Now by overlaying CVI scores with sectoral emissions, we developed a regional prioritization matrix that classifies states into four categories for policy interventions. Our findings reveal significant interstate disparities with CVI scores ranging from 0.421 (Sikkim) to 0.782 (Manipur).  Analysis of emission patterns across sectors indicates that tertiary sector contributes the largest share of national emissions (~42 %), followed by secondary (~30 %) and primary (~28 %) sectors. Contrary to typical national patterns where primary and secondary sectors (e.g., agriculture, manufacturing and energy) are dominant emitters, our analysis suggests that tertiary sector emissions appear more prominent, though these are primarily indirect emissions. Based on these insights, we recommend tailored interventions that include scaling up climate smart agriculture and enhancing financial inclusion in high vulnerability states. In regions identified as emissions hotspots, focus on precision farming and water efficient technologies. For low vulnerability regions, conservation agriculture and agroforestry can play a key role. This framework offers data driven study for designing region specific strategies that simultaneously support India’s decarbonization efforts and strengthen agricultural resilience, thereby ensuring inclusive pathway to achieve net zero emissions.