Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer
Plant Science Today (PST)

Research Articles

Vol. 12 No. sp1 (2025): Recent Advances in Agriculture by Young Minds - II

From farms to foreign markets: Assessing India’s banana export performance and trade direction (2014-2024)

DOI
https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.9454
Submitted
16 May 2025
Published
29-08-2025 — Updated on 29-09-2025
Versions

Abstract

The banana (Musa sp.) is one of the most traded commodities on the international market and a significant commercial fruit crop, ranking above mango in trade volume. Globally, banana ranks first in production but third in cultivated area. In India Andhra Pradesh leads in banana area, production and productivity followed by Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. The study aims to evaluate the export performance and instability index of bananas for the past ten years (2014-2024). It also forecasts the export trends in the upcoming years. The study is based on secondary data collected from the official websites for the period 2014-2024.  Statistical tools such as Markov Chain analysis, Instability Index (II), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Trade Specialization Index (TSI) and Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) were used to analyze the data. The result revealed that from the transition probability matrix, the UAE was the most stable importer and retained 100 % of its market share. Iraq retained 42.63 % of its imports, while 57.37 % shifted to the UAE, indicating trade diversification where, Iran had lost its market share entirely, with 41.92 % redirected to "Others," suggesting an unstable trade environment. The II categorized Iran (70.18 %), Iraq (31.97 %) and Saudi Arabia (39.09 %) as high-risk markets, while Oman (14.21 %) and the UAE (28.32 %) demonstrated relatively stable trade patterns. However, a strong recovery was observed in 2024, with an RCA of 1.31 and a positive RSCA value, reflecting enhanced global positioning. The TSI remained consistently close to positive throughout the decade, indicating India’s specialization and status as a net exporter with minimal banana imports. The NPC showed a declining gap between domestic and international prices from 50.93 % in 2014 to 33.64 % in 2024, suggesting increased competitiveness and better returns for Indian farmers in global markets.

References

  1. 1. National Horticulture Board, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. 2024. http://nhb.gov.in
  2. 2. Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). Agricultural Processed Products Export Development Authority. 2016.
  3. 3. Kondal K. Trends in area and production of horticulture sector in India. ANVESAK Journal. 2014;44(2):1–1
  4. 4. Sharma R, Kispotta W. Trend analysis of area, production and productivity of banana-district Kaushambi (UP). International Journal of Current Advanced Research. 2017;6(2):2187–90
  5. 5. Landge VG, Ingle SG. Export performance of the banana in India. 10.15740/HAS/IRJAES/9.1/72-76. https://doi.org/10.15740/HAS/IRJAES/9.1/72-76
  6. 6. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. Horticulture Statistics at a glance. 2023.
  7. 7. Mehazabeen A, Srinivasan G. Export performance of banana in India-A Markov chain analysis. Plant Archives. 2020;20(2):38 36–8.
  8. 8. Cuddy JD, Della Valle PA. Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford bulletin of economics & statistics. 1978;40(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1978.mp40001006.x
  9. 9. Sihmar R. Growth and instability in agricultural production in Haryana: A district level analysis. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications. 2014;4(7):1–2.
  10. 10. Balassa B. Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School. 1965;33(2):99–123.
  11. 11. Vollrath TL. A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 1991;127(2):265–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707986
  12. 12. Iapadre PL. Measuring international specialization. International Advances in Economic Research. 2001;7(2):173–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02296007
  13. 13. Gotsch C, Brown G. Prices, taxes and subsidies in Pakistan agriculture. 1980:1960-76.
  14. 14. Ghani A, Kaur M, Arora K, Mouzam SM, Saini R. Evaluating the performance, export competitiveness and direction of trade of Indian banana in the international market. Indian Journal of Economics and Development. 2023;19(4):699–711. https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-23196
  15. 15. Bhagat AA, Shete BJ, Bhoge RS. Markov chain analysis on the export prospects of banana in India. The Pharma Innovation Journal. 2022;11(11):1831–3.
  16. 16. Nayak AK, Nahar S. Growth, instability and export performance of banana in India-an economic analysis. Agriculture Industry. 2018;74(10):25–33.
  17. 17. Sharma A, Kathuria LM, Kaur T. Analyzing relative export competitiveness of Indian agricultural food products: a study of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal. 2022;33(6):1090–117. https://doi.org/10.1108/CR-03-2022-0039
  18. 18. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Statistical Yearbook. 2023.
  19. 19. Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), 2023. http://www.apeda.gov.in
  20. 20. Oberoi S. Dynamics of trade specialization and trade performance of ASEAN–India free trade agreement. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy. 2019;10(1):1950003. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993319500030
  21. 21. Mattoo A, Mishra D, Narain A. From competition at home to competing abroad: a case study of India's horticulture. Oxford University Press; 2007.
  22. 22. Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 2024.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.