Agriculture in Odisha is predominantly rain-fed and smallholder-based, with millets historically serving as staple food crops and livelihood crops for tribal and marginal farmers. Despite renewed national interest in millets as climate-resilient, nutritious crops, the cultivation of ragi, jowar, bajra and small millets in Odisha has experienced a sustained decline that remains insufficiently documented. This study examines the long-term growth and instability in area, production and productivity of these four millet crops in Odisha over fourdecades (1981–82 to 2021–22), using secondary time-series data from the Directorate of Agriculture and Farmers' Empowerment, Government of Odisha. Growth trends were analysed using compound annual growth rate (CAGR), while variability and instability were assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV) and the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI). Cultivated area and production declined consistently across all four crops. Ragi area contracted at -3.53 % per annum (p < 0.001) and production at -5.87 % per annum (p < 0.001). Small millets showed comparable area and production declines (-5.51 and -5.54 % respectively) accompanied by stagnant productivity. Jowar recorded the steepest area contraction (-6.11 % per annum), representing an approximately 84 % reduction in cultivated area over four decades, while bajra registered the sharpest production decline (-6.91 % per annum). Uniformly low CDVI values indicate that these declines are structurally rather than climate-driven. The findings point to a durable structural decline rather than a transient downturn, shaped jointly by policy incentives favouring paddy and the uneven geographic reach of national millet breeding programmes. Reversing this trend will require rationalised minimum support prices, expanded procurement infrastructure and breeding investments targeted at Odisha's specific agro-climatic conditions.
