Historical advancements in Indian monsoon forecasting: A review

K Pugazenthi; K P Jeevanand; V Geethalakshmi; R Jagannathan; G Dheebakaran; K Boomiraj; S Pazhanivelan

doi:10.14719/pst.6407

Authors

K Pugazenthi Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8059-7462
K P Jeevanand Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad 500 059, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-5143
V Geethalakshmi Office of Vice Chancellor, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1631-121X
R Jagannathan Office of Vice Chancellor, Periyar University, Salem 636 011, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-577X
G Dheebakaran Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0603-192X
K Boomiraj Department of Environmental Sciences, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8112-929X
S Pazhanivelan Centre for Water and Geospatial Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641003, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3596-3232

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.6407

Keywords:

agriculture, indian monsoon, seasonal forecast

Abstract

The seasonal forecast is an important type of forecast in the agriculture sector particularly in India where the vast population relies on agriculture. Monsoon trade winds contribute to vast portion of Indian rainfall. Owing to its importance, the research activities on the prediction of the Indian monsoon started in ancient times and are carried over for the development of a perfect forecast system. India has bimodal rainfall with two major monsoons. The southwest monsoon contributes more with widespread rainfall over India and the northeast monsoon is the returning monsoon which brings dry wind to northern India and provides huge rain in southern India, particularly Tamil Nadu. Most of the work regarding monsoon has been con- centrated on southwest monsoon and less on northeast monsoon based on its importance. Over the years, several projects have been undertaken to enhance seasonal forecasting, with the Monsoon Mission being one of the most recent and significant initiatives aimed at improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, Agromet Advisory Services Bulletins have been developed using seasonal outlooks to provide tailored recommendations to farmers, helping them optimize agricultural practices based on forecasted conditions. This review highlights the advancements in seasonal forecasting, the regional focus on monsoons, and the role of these forecasts in supporting India’s agricultural sector.

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