Predicting area, production and productivity of gingelly in Tamil Nadu using linear and non-linear models

B Sivasankari; M Ilamaran; P Sujatha; K P Sivakumar; P Prema; S Anandhi; R Gowri Shankar

doi:10.14719/pst.6220

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Predicting area, production and productivity of gingelly in Tamil Nadu using linear and non-linear models

Authors

B Sivasankari Community Science College and Research Institute, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, 625 104, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-8170
M Ilamaran Community Science College and Research Institute, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, 625 104, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2303-437X
P Sujatha Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Eachangkottai 614 902, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2682-4070
K P Sivakumar Community Science College and Research Institute, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, 625 104, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9628-783X
P Prema Agricultural College and Research Institute, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, 625 104, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1211-3382
S Anandhi Department of Agricultural Economics, Anbil Dharmalingam Agricultural College and Research Institute , Tiruchirappalli 620 027, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0249-5743
R Gowri Shankar Agricultural College and Research Institute, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, 625 104, Tamil Nadu, India https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4188-8311

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.6220

Keywords:

linear model, non-linear model, R square, RMSE, MAPE

Abstract

The objective of this study was to identify the most suitable linear and non-linear growth models for predicting the area, productivity, and production of gingelly in Tamil Nadu, as well as to project its future growth (until 2026 A.D.). The seasonal crop report of Tamil Nadu provided time series data regarding the area, productivity, and production of gingelly for a 58-year period spanning from 1965–1966 to 2022–2023. The study involved fitting multiple trend equations, including linear and non-linear growth models, to determine the best-fitting model for gingelly production in Tamil Nadu. For the forecasting up to 2026, the model that best suited the data was selected based on its highest coefficient of determination (R2) and lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. During the study period, the average gingelly area, production, and productivity in Tamil Nadu were recorded as 93892 ha, 37471 t, and 431 kg/ha, respectively. The cubic model's predictions for the future showed that area, productivity, and production will all rise significantly. By 2026 A.D., the predicted area is expected to be 28338.62 hectares, while production and productivity are projected to reach 15211.87 t and 581.22 kg/ha, respectively.

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Published

03-04-2025

How to Cite

Sivasankari B, Ilamaran M, Sujatha P, Sivakumar KP, Prema P, Anandhi S, Gowri Shankar R. Predicting area, production and productivity of gingelly in Tamil Nadu using linear and non-linear models . Plant Sci. Today [Internet]. 2025 Apr. 3 [cited 2025 Apr. 11];. Available from: https://horizonepublishing.com/journals/index.php/PST/article/view/6220

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